50% 以上还赚钱 就没有调整完~~.08 容易亏钱.08年之后还会有很大的机会.是少数人赚钱, 多说人赔钱的企业.以前最严重的时候基本每个股票后边都有庄, 你实际还是和你自己斗, 真正地赢家, 是在熊市中看谁能退出来.
理论~
April 9, 2008 by wenwwycccDCF analysis
March 20, 2008 by wenwwycccThe forecast period
Revenue Growth Rate
We have decided that we want to estimate the free cash flow that The Widget Company will produce over the next five years. To arrive at this figure, the standard procedure is to forecast revenue growth over that time period. Then (as we will see in later chapters), by breaking down after-tax operating profits, estimated capital expenditure and working capital needs, we can estimate the cash flow the company will produce.
Let’s start with top line growth. Forecasting a company’s revenues is arguably the most important assumption one can make about its future cash flows. It can also be the most difficult assumption to make. (For more on forecasting sales, see Great Expectations: Forecasting Sales Growth.)
We need to think carefully about what the industry and the company could look like as they evolve in the future. When forecasting revenue growth, we need to consider a wide variety of factors. These include whether the company’s market is expanding or contracting, and how its market share is performing. We also need to consider whether there are any new products driving sales or whether pricing changes are imminent. But because that future can never be certain, it is valuable to consider more than one possible outcome for the company.
First, the upbeat revenue growth scenario: The Widget Company has grown revenues at 20% for the past two years, and your careful market research suggests that demand for widgets will not let up any time soon. Management – always optimistic – argues that the company will keep growing at 20%.
That being said, there may be reasons to downplay revenue growth expectations. While the company’s revenue growth will stay strong in the first few years, it could slow to a lower rate by Year 5 as a result of increasing international competition and industry commoditization. We should err on the side of caution and conservatism and assume that The Widget Company’s top line growth rate profile will commence at 20% for the first two years, then drop to 15% for the next two years and finally drop to 10% in Year 5. Posting $100 million of revenue in its latest annual report, the company is projected to grow its revenues to $209.5 million at the end of five years (based on realistic, rather than optimistic, growth expectations).
Forecast Revenue Growth Profiles
| Current Year | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
| Optimistic: Growth Rate Revenue |
- $100 M |
20% $120 M |
20% $144 M |
20% $172.8 M |
20% $207.4 M |
20% $248.9 M |
| Realistic: Growth Rate Revenue |
- $100 M |
20% $120 M |
20% $144 M |
15% $165.6 M |
15% $190.4 M |
10% $209.5 M |
Forecasting Free Cash Flows
Now that we have determined revenue growth for our forecast period of five years, we want to estimate the free cash flow produced over the forecast period.
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Free cash flow is the cash that flows through a company in the course of a quarter or a year once all cash expenses have been taken out. Free cash flow represents the actual amount of cash that a company has left from its operations that could be used to pursue opportunities that enhance shareholder value – for example, developing new products, paying dividends to investors or doing share buybacks. (To learn more, see Free Cash Flow: Free, But Not Always Easy.)
Is Free Cash Flow Foolproof?
Although it provides a wealth of valuable information that investors really appreciate, FCF is not infallible. Crafty companies still have leeway when it comes to accounting sleight of hand.
Without a regulatory standard for determining FCF, investors often disagree on exactly which items should and should not be treated as capital expenditures. Investors must therefore keep an eye on companies with high levels of FCF to see if these companies are under-reporting capital expenditure and R&D. Companies can also temporarily boost FCF by stretching out their payments, tightening payment collection policies and depleting inventories. These activities diminish current liabilities and changes to working capital. But the impacts are likely to be temporary.
The Trick of Hiding Receivables
Let’s look at yet another example of FCF tomfoolery, which involves specious calculations of the current accounts receivable. When a company reports revenue, it records an account receivable, which represents cash that is yet to be received. The revenues then increase net income and cash from operations, but that increase is typically offset by an increase in current accounts receivable, which are then subtracted from cash from operations. When companies record their revenues as such, the net impact on cash from operations and free cash flow should be zero since no cash has been received.
20 Investments
March 20, 2008 by wenwwycccClosed – end investment
A closed-end fund is an investment fund that issues a fixed number of shares in an actively managed portfolio of securities. The shares are traded in the market just like stocks, but because closed-end funds represent a portfolio of securities they are very similar to a mutual fund. Unlike a mutual fund, the market price of the shares is determined by supply and demand and not by net asset value.
Collectibles
Generally speaking, a collectible is any physical asset that appreciates in value over time because it is rare or it is desired by many. Many people think of collectibles as things like stamps, coins, fine art or sports cards, but there really are no strict rules as to what is or is not a collectible.
Convertible Security
A convertible, sometimes called a CV, is either a convertible bond or a preferred stock convertible. A convertible bond is a bond that can be converted into the company’s common stock. You can exercise the convertible bond and exchange the bond into a predetermined amount of shares in the company. The conversion ratio can vary from bond to bond. You can find the terms of the convertible, such as the exact number of shares or the method of determining how many shares the bond is converted into, in the indenture. For example, a conversion ratio of 40:1 means that every bond (with a $1,000 par value) you hold can be exchanged for 40 shares of stock. Occasionally, the indenture might have a provision that states the conversion ratio will change through the years, but this is rare.
Strengths
Weaknesses
Three Main Uses
Common Stock
20 Investments
March 20, 2008 by wenwwycccAmerican Depository Receipt (ADR)
ADRs were introduced in response to the difficulty of buying shares from other countries which trade at different prices and currency values. U.S. banks simply purchase a large lot of shares from a foreign company, bundle the shares into groups and reissue them on either the NYSE, AMEX or Nasdaq. The depository bank sets the ratio of U.S. ADRs per home country share. This ratio can be anything less than or greater than 1. For example, a ratio of 4:1 means that one ADR share represents four shares in the foreign company.
The majority of ADRs range in price from $10 to $100 per share. If the shares are worth considerably less in the home country, then each ADR will represent several real shares. Foreign entities generally like ADRs because it gives them U.S. exposure, which allows them to tap into the rich North American equity markets. In return, the foreign company must provide detailed financial information to the sponsor bank.
Objectives and Risks
The main objective of ADRs is to save individual investors money by reducing administration costs and avoiding duty on each transaction. For individuals, ADRs are an excellent way to buy shares in a foreign company and capitalize on growth potential outside North America. ADRs offer a good opportunity for capital appreciation as well as income if t
he company pays dividends.
Analyzing foreign companies involves more than just looking at the fundamentals. There are some different risks to consider such as the following:Political Risk - Is the government in the home country of the ADR stable?Exchange Rate Risk - Is the currency of the home country stable? ADRs track the shares in the home country; therefore, if its currency is devalued, it trickles down to your ADR and can result in a loss.Inflationary Risk - This is an extension of the exchange rate risk. Inflation is a big blow to business, and the currency of a country with high inflation becomes less and less valuable each day.
How to Buy or Sell It
ADRs are bought in exactly the same way as common stock. Whether you use a full service or discount brokerage doesn’t matter. There is no minimum investment for most ADRs; however, as with any investment, many brokerages require clients to have at least $500 to open an account.
Strengths
Weaknesses
Three Main Uses
-
Capital Appreciation
- Income
- Diversification
Annuity 养老金
State News Interview Memo
March 20, 2008 by wenwwycccdo you have any question for us?
where am I gonna start? What kind of job that I will do? To show some excitiment and as well as know what kind of person are they looking for.
when they ask for specific things, try to answer that you would like to do it, you has interests in that fiel too, etc. So they will think that you have more option.
Things to show on the E-board meeting
March 20, 2008 by wenwwycccForum
Introduce different forum
How to setup new post
How to reply
How to use emotion
How to use icon
20 Investments
March 20, 2008 by wenwwycccAmerican Depository Receipt
Ideas of making the forum work
March 17, 2008 by wenwwycccchoose stock of the week
setup certain industry and topics that people will be interest in.
CBG
March 17, 2008 by wenwwycccInsider Filings
http://biz.yahoo.com/t/79/890.html
Blum, Richard – Chairman of the board
Brief Biography
Mr. Blum has been Chairman of the Board of Directors of CB Richard Ellis Group since September 2001 and a director of CB Richard Ellis Group since July 2001. He is the Chairman and President of Richard C. Blum & Associates, Inc., the general partner of Blum Capital Partners, L.P., a long-term strategic equity investment management firm that acts as general partner for various investment partnerships and provides investment advisory services, which he founded in 1975. Mr. Blum holds a B.A. and an M.B.A. from the University of California, Berkeley.
White, W. Brett – CEO
Brief Biography
Mr. White is CB Richard Ellis Group’s President and Chief Executive Officer. Mr. White has been a member of the Board since September 2001. He was Chairman of the Americas of CB Richard Ellis Services, Inc. from May 1999 to September 2001 and was its President of Brokerage Services from August 1997 to May 1999. Previously, he was one of its Executive Vice Presidents from March 1994 to July 1997 and Managing Officer of its Newport Beach, California office from May 1993 to March 1994. Mr. White holds a B.A. from the University of California, Santa Barbara.
Wirta, Ray – Vice Chairman of the Board
Brief Biography
Mr. Wirta has been Chief Executive Officer of CB Richard Ellis Group since July 2001 and a director of CB Richard Ellis Group since September 2001. He has been Chief Executive Officer from September 2001 to June 2005. From May 1999 to September 2001, he served as Chief Executive Officer of CB Richard Ellis Services, Inc. and served as its Chief Operating Officer from May 1998 to May 1999. Mr. Wirta also serves as Chairperson of the board of directors CBRE Realty Finance, Inc. and as a manager of Allied Security Holdings LLC. Mr. Wirta holds a B.A. from California State University, Long Beach and an M.B.A. in International Management from Golden Gate University.
Sulentic, Robert – Group President, Asia Pacific and Europe, Middle East and Africa, Director
Brief Biography
Mr. Sulentic is CB Richard Ellis Group’s Group President, Development Services, Asia Pacific and Europe, Middle East and Africa and has been a member of the Board since December 2006 following the acquisition of Trammell Crow Company. Mr. Sulentic was a director of Trammell Crow Company from December 1997 through December 2006, and served as its Chairman of the Board from May 2002 through December 2006. He was President and Chief Executive Officer of Trammell Crow Company from October 2000 through December 2006 and prior to that served as its Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer from September 1998 to October 2000. Mr. Sulentic holds a B.A. from Iowa State University and an M.B.A. from Harvard Business School.
CBR investor
http://www.cbreinvestors.com/cylinder_templates/cylinder_display.asp?cyl_id=25
Stuff have to work on the SIA website
March 15, 2008 by wenwwycccThings has to put on the website.
- the DCF model are put on the website manually, it eventualy will has a visitor friendly input page
- the event and news will change to announcement in the index page link to the event and news at the resources section
- Education part on the index page
- forum need moderator
Forum
Hey, Patrick and everyone
The following setup is my ideas of the setup of the forum. I described the function of each section as follow, but, as my English is $%^, I need you guys help to come up with a specific name for each section and reword the description a little bit so it could be looks more professional.
- Management (only accessible to e-board member)
- A place that E-board member can talk about new ideas and suggestions about SIA.
- A place that E-board member can talk about thought about our current portfolio, call a research or study group. You can also simply talk to other e-board member here.
- (temporarily) A place for E-board member to talk about ideas about website, or any bug you found on the website.
- Members
- A place that members can talk about hot stocks, bonds and mutual funds
- A place that members can discuss invest knowledge and current news. (it might need some e-board member to setup the topic)
- A place that members want to find some body to study things in finance area outside of class. And all sorts of find friends in this area.
- A place that people can just chat here.
I also hope that our e-board member could start talking on the forum more, so we can know each other better and communicate quicker as well as making the forum running. We need people talk here!!
